Atlas Capital projects Bitcoin at $500,000 over the long run, but opens with a hard warning: a 70% drawdown in the next six months, dragging BTC down to a $26,000 to $30,000 zone. The thesis comes from CEO Reza Bundy and was built with Nouriel Roubini, known as Dr. Doom, who serves as chief economist and cofounder. The call was delivered in Paris on the sidelines of the Proof of Talk conference.
Key Takeaways
- Atlas Capital expects a 70% Bitcoin drawdown toward $26,000 to $30,000 within six months
- Nouriel Roubini, known as Dr. Doom, serves as chief economist and cofounder of Atlas Capital
- The long-term target stands at a Bitcoin price between $150,000 and $500,000
Reza Bundy Lays Out the 70% Crash Thesis in Paris
The call was made on the sidelines of the Proof of Talk conference in Paris, during an interview with CoinDesk. Reza Bundy, CEO of Atlas Capital, warned that a massive Bitcoin drawdown is ahead, and that it could reach up to 70% over the next six months.
The numeric scenario is precise. Bundy targets a $26,000 to $30,000 zone as the likely landing area, after a continuous slide from current levels. With BTC already moving in the low $60,000s, the projection implies at least an extra 50% decline over the next half year.
The timing of the public framing is not random. The market is already going through a stress phase marked by a sub $62,000 crash on June 4 and $1.5 billion in liquidations within 24 hours. Bundy speaks into a window where the bearish read has already started to validate itself through institutional flows.
The analysis relies on the firm’s internal macro models, crossing global liquidity compression, energy prices, dollar dynamics and institutional capital flows. That is exactly the framework in which the crypto market has been capitulating for several sessions now, and it gives the prediction added weight in the eyes of professional allocators.
The Partnership with Nouriel Roubini as Chief Economist
Atlas Capital is not an anonymous outfit. Nouriel Roubini, the economist nicknamed Dr. Doom for calling the 2008 financial crisis, is cofounder and chief economist of the firm. His signature carries weight on every bearish call that leaves the house.
The thesis is not the work of a single hand. Bundy explicitly notes that the numbers were built jointly with Roubini, using the macro analytical engine the two have developed together since the fund was launched. This is what differentiates Atlas Capital from classic perma-bears. The bearish call is documented and quantified, not just shouted.
Roubini’s profile adds a reputational layer. A long standing Bitcoin critic who historically dismissed the asset as a pure speculative instrument, the economist is now part of a forecasting exercise that includes BTC squarely in its analytical frame. His implicit endorsement reinforces the message in front of institutional investors, who tend to track partial intellectual reversals very closely.
The timing of the announcement aligns with a wave of bearish calls from other prominent voices, including Arthur Hayes the day before on Zcash and on HYPE. The cluster of converging signals feeds the cycle-top narrative, or at minimum the case for a deep correction before the next leg of expansion.
Also on Cryptonomic:
- Zcash Crashes 40% After a 4-Year Hidden Vulnerability
- Bitcoin Crash Below $62,000: $1.5B Wiped Out in 24 Hours
- Hyperliquid’s HYPE Token: $673M Unlock on June 6
The Long-Term Target Between $150,000 and $500,000 on the Store of Value Thesis
Bundy is no perma-bear though. The Atlas Capital CEO holds the Bitcoin store of value thesis on the long horizon, with a price projection of $150,000 to $500,000. The high end of $500,000 represents the optimistic scenario in the firm’s long term framework.
The connection between both numbers is internally coherent. Short term, Bitcoin remains a high beta asset, exposed to institutional flows, global liquidity cycles and correlations with growth equities. That is exactly what justifies the 70% drawdown forecast over six months, in line with the institutional unwind currently visible across spot, ETFs and equities.
Long term, the analysis shifts entirely. Bitcoin becomes a structural store of value in an environment where gold, sovereign bonds and traditional cash holdings keep losing purchasing power. This is the foundation under the $500,000 target, conditional on continued institutional adoption despite the coming corrective phase.
The stake for holders is tactical before being strategic. If Atlas Capital is right, selling now to rebuild a position in the $26,000 to $30,000 zone represents a round trip worth more than 100% in potential upside. If the crash does not show up, the opportunity cost stays modest against a long term path that remains bullish.
The credibility of the call will be measured in the coming weeks. A clean break below $60,000 would validate Bundy and Roubini’s thesis and likely trigger a broader profit taking wave across the market. A sharp rebound, on the contrary, would force Atlas Capital to defend its scenario publicly in an environment where every number becomes a market signal.
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