A ceasefire between Washington and Tehran was enough to move markets. Oil collapsed, stocks bounced, and bitcoin broke through a major technical resistance level that had been in place since October 2025. But contradictory statements from both sides serve as a reminder that nothing has been signed yet.
To summarize
• Bitcoin is up 18.8% since the start of the Iran crisis, outperforming both equities and gold.
• The Strait of Hormuz was officially reopened on April 17, triggering an oil price drop of more than 9%.
• Negotiations remain fragile, with Iran publicly contesting US statements.
What the truce triggered across markets
On April 17, Iran officially declared the Strait of Hormuz open, following a ceasefire in Lebanon that fulfilled one of Tehran’s stated conditions.
Markets reacted immediately and sharply.
Brent crude dropped more than 9% to $90.38 per barrel. US crude lost 11.4%, falling to $83.85. The S&P 500 recorded its fastest recovery since 1982.
Bitcoin, meanwhile, broke through a technical resistance level that had been closely watched for months. The descending trendline in place since the October 2025 peak at $126,000 gave way, with an intraday high of $78,384. Over 24 hours, BTC posted a 3.6% gain and was trading around $77,192 at the time.
This move fits into a broader pattern. Since the start of the Iran crisis, bitcoin is up 18.8%, while equities have declined and gold has shed 7.4%. A performance that reinforces the case for bitcoin as a distinctive asset during periods of geopolitical tension.
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Bitcoin : signals are stacking up
Beyond price, several internal market signals are worth noting.
The large bitcoin whales, those major holders who had been selling since autumn 2025, recorded two consecutive weeks of net buying. The first time since last October. This reversal is consistent with the four-year cycle thesis and suggests that the structural selling pressure may be easing.
On the institutional side, digital asset investment products collected $520 million over the week, after a difficult start to the period marked by nearly $400 million in outflows. Since the start of the year, inflows into bitcoin products have reached approximately $2.4 billion in total. Three consecutive weeks of positive inflows reflect a renewed institutional appetite.
Ethereum also benefited from the move, with $203 million in inflows over the week, returning to positive territory on an annual basis for the first time since the start of the year. Solana, by contrast, experienced notable outflows.
On the technical side, areas of caution remain. The market is still under a death cross, with the 50-day moving average below the 200-day. The RSI at 67.7 is approaching overbought territory. The $74,000 to $75,000 zone is now the key support level to watch.
A fragile truce that could change everything
The problem is that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is not as clear-cut as it appears.
More than 150 tankers remain anchored around the strait. Maritime traffic stays well below pre-war levels, which ran between 130 and 140 vessels per day. High insurance costs and contradictory signals from Washington and Tehran are keeping most operators cautious. The US blockade of Iranian-linked ports remains in force.
On the Iranian side, the Speaker of Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, accused Trump of making “seven claims, all seven of which were false” in a post on X and Telegram. He warned that if the blockade continues, the strait will not remain open, and that any transit will follow a route determined by Tehran. He also flatly denied that Iran had agreed to transfer its enriched uranium, calling the claim entirely false.
Key points of disagreement remain. Iran wants a five-year nuclear moratorium, Washington wants twenty. The fate of more than 400 kg of uranium enriched to 60% is unresolved. And the Israeli-Lebanese question remains a separate dossier, suspended in uncertainty.
Markets that rallied on news of the reopening may have moved too fast. Friday’s optimism rests on a situation that is still in motion, where a single statement can reverse the dynamic within hours.
The bull run may be taking shape. But it will wait for the signature.
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